I like a pair of upsets today, along with a fireworks show in Oakland. Let's get to it!
Play 1: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds -- Reds moneyline (+135) Caesars
A little upset special to kick things off, as I like/love the Reds in Atlanta tonight.
Right off the bat, Reds pitcher Hunter Greene has an awesome matchup against a depleted Braves lineup, now missing Ozzie Albies along with Ronald Acuna Jr.
Greene is a strikeout artist, with a 27.6 K% on the year, and in recent weeks, that number has ticked up. In fact, in his last 28 innings, Greene has punched out 37 batters.
And this projected Braves lineup ... well, they strike out. A lot. The lowest strikeout rate belongs to catcher Sean Murphy at 19%. The overall strikeout rate for the lineup hovers near Greene's 27% rate.
In short: Greene should rack up the K's tonight.
Meanwhile, Greene's barrel rate is a tiny 5.4%, so when he's not missing bats, he should generate plenty of lousy contact.
On the other side of the pitching ledger -- and the reason the Braves are favored -- is Reynaldo Lopez, who is having a superb season, but ... but not as superb as the top line stats would indicate.
For instance: His 1.88 ERA is nearly two full runs lower than his xFIP of 3.79. Why the big difference? Probably because he's stranding nearly 87% of batters on base, compared to his 73% career rate.
Lopez is sometimes dancing through raindrops, in other words.
And two raindrops that might cause Lopez some problems are Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario. They both crush the slider and the four-seam fastball, the two pitches Lopez throws 85% of the time.
If Greene can keep the Braves in check -- which I think he will with relative ease -- all the Reds will need to do is scratch out a few runs. I can see that happening, and at +135 odds, it's the clear play.
Play 2: Oakland A's vs. Houston Astros -- Over 8.5 runs (-105) DraftKings
I have no idea why this number isn't 9.5. Or 10.5. Or 11.5. Or ... 19.5.
I mean really: These are two not-good pitchers, and the A's ... well, the A's have been just tearing the cover off the ball lately.
Against righties in July, the A's have the second best team ISO at .237 and the best wOBA at .372.
Tonight, they go up against Spencer Arrighetti, who's has not looked great so far in his rookie campaign.
A 25% K rate is matched with an 11% walk rate. And while he is getting BABIP'd to death at a .344 clip, it's not like his xFIP of 4.34 is anything to write home about.
The A's are smoking the ball. Arrighetti isn't a great pitcher. Ergo, the A's should score some runs.
And so should the Astros, against lefty Hogan Harris, who is getting blasted nearly every time he takes the mound. A .167 ISO and .340 wOBA against will do that to you. Furthermore, a 17% K rate matched with an 11% walk rate isn't pretty.
He throws a four-seamer more than half the time, and five of the Astros projected starters have ISOs above .200 against the pitch over the last two years.
I love the over here, and would even consider laddering it up.
Play 3: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox -- White Sox money line (+150) BetMGM
This one isn't for the faint of heart, and I'm not really sold on the Chisox here, but I do think the odds are inflated, so let's roll with it.
By the way, the above sentence is exactly what I wrote on Sunday, and it didn't work out, as the Chisox lost to the Royals.
But I'm going back to the Sox tonight on the road against the Rangers.
Erick Fedde will be on the mound for Chicago, and he's been nothing short of spectacular in his return to the Majors after a wildly successful season in the Korean Baseball Organization.
Something clearly clicked for Fedde, as this year he's averaging an extra strikeout per 9, one less walk per 9, an ERA two runs lower matched with an xFIP nearly a run lower, and his hard hit rate is lower by a few percentage points.
All told, Fedde went from bad to good. And while the Rangers are obviously a dangerous offensive team, they don't match up too well against Fedde's mix of pitches. He leans on a cutter and sinker, and outside of the usual suspects in Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia, the Rangers lineup doesn't hit those pitches all that great.
Meanwhile, on the other side, the White Sox will face Michael Lorenzen, a reverse splits righty.
The meat of the White Sox order -- Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez -- are all righties, and all have ISOs north of .164 against four-seam fastballs, which Lorenzen throws nearly 40% of the time. Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong are another pair of righties with pop. It's not so far-fetched to see some White Sox offense tonight.
As such, I'll take the better pitcher at plus-odds.
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